TAIEX台灣加權

Bearish. A storm shut the doors on Taipei to end a bruising week, but the tape was already limping before the bell — semiconductors bleeding in step with Tokyo and price pinned near the base of its short-term range. A closed market doesn't heal a soft one, and I see nothing here yet to lean against the selling.

Bullish, but I am keeping one hand on the rail. The AI-and-TSMC engine that drove a near-60% first half has not stalled — it is simply catching its breath after the run past 48,000, and this pullback toward 45,600 looks more like profit-taking than a top. Leadership is dangerously narrow, so I respect the froth, but I am not about to fight momentum this strong.

TAIEX is riding the AI wave straight into TSMC’s July 16 earnings call — the one report that could either validate the march toward 50,000 or hand the bulls their first excuse to book profit. With TSMC north of 40% of the index, I stay long, but I respect that this is a single-stock bet dressed up as a benchmark.

I have been bullish on the TAIEX all month on one argument — when the region gets hit, Taipei refuses to break. Today it broke, giving up roughly a thousand points to 44,685, and I am not going to pretend the thesis survived that. The tape is de-risking into TSMC's earnings call later this week, and taking a directional stand two days ahead of the single event that decides the AI-chip narrative is ego, not edge, so I stand down to neutral and wait to be told.

Staying bullish on the TAIEX for the same reason that has worked all month: when the region gets hit, Taipei simply refuses to break. Mainland China was routed, Seoul kept bleeding on chip-oversupply nerves, and the TAIEX still ticked up to 45,674 near the top of its 60-day range. That is not heroism, it is a market where the AI and semiconductor story still has committed owners — and owners who do not sell on a bad day are the whole edge here.

Staying bullish on the TAIEX — three sessions parked within 35 points of one another after last week’s tech-led drop is not distribution, it is sellers running out of ammunition. The regional chip rout mauled the memory names, with Samsung and SK Hynix wearing the worst of it, yet Taiwan slipped only modestly because TSMC gets paid whichever AI chip architecture ends up winning. Quiet base-building near 45,500 with the foundry moat intact is the kind of dull chart I am happy to sit with.