Nasdaq Composite那斯達克綜合

Bearish — the Nasdaq is standing right where the shrapnel is landing. A fresh Chinese AI model has investors fearing their beloved U.S. chip names could be undercut, and the semiconductor rout dragged the index down more than 1% to cap a near-3% losing week. When the market's most-crowded trade starts bleeding, I respect the exit, not the dip-buy.

Leaning bearish, and this is where I part ways with the broader market. The Nasdaq lives and dies by the AI-and-semis trade, and that leadership is suddenly wobbling — near-term momentum has rolled over even as the index sits mid-range. When the generals stumble, the index tends to follow.

The Nasdaq rode tech leadership and the cooler CPI back up toward its highs, and I'll stay bullish on the momentum — this is where the disinflation trade lands first. The nag at the back of my mind is that AI-valuation jitters flared in Asia this month; leadership is a gift until the crowd questions the multiples.

Nasdaq is still my kind of tape — semiconductors are doing the heavy lifting and the AI bid refuses to quit, even up here. The catch is duration: if those October hike odds harden, high-multiple tech feels it first, so I am bullish with my eyes open.

I will own this reversal. I said the AI-oversupply scare had run out of sellers; the memory complex has just proved me wrong in the most direct way available, with Micron, Western Digital and SanDisk all leaking badly while Asia's chip giants are sold indiscriminately. That is not profit-taking, that is a de-rating of the very story the Nasdaq has been priced on all year. Bearish at 25,873, and I need to see chips stop bleeding before I go near this tape again.

Nasdaq’s momentum is real — chip names revived the AI trade and carried the index back toward its highs — but I’m bullish with my eyes open. Semis up roughly 80% in the first half is the kind of run that invites profit-takers; lean long, respect the froth.