CSI 300滬深 300

The model still calls this a downtrend and it is not wrong about the 60-day picture, but the tape underneath has quietly changed. The CSI 300 has strung together higher lows since the 4,540 washout and just posted its best close since 23 July, with the Shanghai Composite also finishing firmer on the day. We will take the bullish side, while being honest that this is still a bounce that has to prove itself above the mid-July shelf.

Bearish — and yes, that means reversing a call I only just softened. The two-day bounce I gave the benefit of the doubt topped out at 4,672 and rolled straight back over, shedding 1% to 4,627 as chip names were sold into profit-taking. That is another failed attempt to escape the bottom quartile of every window I track, and it comes during a stretch when crude has collapsed and the world's largest oil importer should have been the region's biggest winner. When a market can't rally on its own best news, I stop hunting for reasons and go back to the tape.

Neutral — I'm standing down from a bearish call I've made in almost every session for two weeks, and I'd rather do that honestly than defend it out of pride. The CSI 300 has now strung together back-to-back gains, up 1.8% to 4,672 and off Monday's 4,540 floor, and with crude collapsing — a straight subsidy to the world's largest oil importer — my core argument, that the mainland lags every regional rally, is thinner than it was. I'm not chasing to bullish: I made exactly that switch on a two-day divergence a week ago and was wrong inside 24 hours.

Bearish still, and a 1% bounce doesn't move me. The CSI 300 sits at the 18th percentile of every window I watch after a stretch in which Seoul rallied double digits, Taipei added 7.7%, Hong Kong ran nine straight sessions and US indices made records — a market that cannot lift in that tape has a problem at home, not abroad. I did try the divergence-is-too-clean-to-ignore trade in late July and got run over for it, so I'll hold the bearish side and let the mainland prove me wrong with a close back above 4,700 rather than one green day.

Bearish. On a day India rallied on cheaper crude and Hong Kong ground out a ninth straight gain, the CSI 300 gave back 1.5% to 4,544 and sat right back down on the floor of every window I track. What bothers me is the shape of it: the memory-share fight that is punishing Seoul is supposed to be a China win, yet none of it shows up here, because this index's weights are banks and old-economy names rather than the chip challengers. Until the mainland's own good news starts landing in the mainland's own index, I stay out of the way.

The whole region had its best session in a long while — Seoul up more than 16%, Taipei up over 7% — and the CSI 300 squeezed out 1.6% to 4,611, still pinned near the floor of every window I track. That's the read: when a market can't rally on the one day everything rallies, the problem isn't sentiment, it's the weights underneath. Bearish, and there's a bitter irony in it, since the China chip and AI competition being blamed for the panic is precisely what Shanghai and Shenzhen are supposed to own.