CSI 300滬深 300

Bearish, and the chart isn't subtle about it — price has slid to the absolute floor of every window I watch. A GDP print landing at its weakest since 2022 and under Beijing's own target strips the bulls of their story. Rallies like early July's fade fast when the growth engine is sputtering; I stay defensive.

Bearish, and for once the tape agrees with the macro. Second-quarter GDP cooling to 4.3% — the softest since late 2022 and below Beijing’s own target — plus a deepening drop in fixed-asset investment leaves the index pinned to the floor of its range. Retail and industrial output offer a flicker of hope, but until the recovery stops looking this uneven, I would rather be patient than early.

CSI 300 has slipped back from its July 9 pop to the softest level since June, and the tape has lost its spark even with June exports hitting a record. I read the near term as a downhill drift — that export strength is a floor, not a fresh catalyst — so I fade the bounce until momentum genuinely turns.

Staying bearish on the CSI 300, and yes, I know it just bounced 1.6% to 4,753. Look at what did the lifting: a semiconductor squeeze tied to a memory-chip IPO due to price this week — a supply-of-paper story, not a demand-for-China story. I flipped once already on a one-day rip and the market punished me for it within days; I am not paying that tuition twice, and the index still sits near the floor of its 60-day range.

Three days ago I said I was wrong to be bearish on the CSI 300 and flipped up. The market has now told me the first call was the right one — this is an ugly, wholesale reversal that puts the index at the very floor of every window I measure, with BYD, Luxshare and Hikvision among the names dragging. Renewed US-Iran escalation is the trigger, but the tell is that the mainland gave back far more than Hong Kong did: when the domestic bid is this thin, it does not take much of a shock to find out. Bearish, and I do not think one green day would change that this time.

I was wrong, and it took barely a day. Yesterday I called the CSI 300 bearish on the argument that offshore money was renting the China story while onshore money refused to follow — then the mainland benchmark ripped 2.2% to 4,886 and out-ran Hong Kong doing it. That is exactly the confirmation I said I was waiting for: the chip and AI substitution bid has finally crossed the border into the A-share large caps. I flip bullish, with the 5,000 handle now the line that decides whether this is a re-rating or a squeeze.