KOSPI韓國綜合

After a barely-believable near-doubling in the first half, the KOSPI is the one I'll lean bearish on — the AI-chip selloff cracked the momentum and this semis-heavy index is exactly where a valuation reset bites hardest. Parabolas don't unwind gently; I'd rather respect the air pocket than assume the party just resumes.

I am leaning bearish on the KOSPI — a hawkish Fed and firm dollar squeeze the won and pressure Korea's risk-heavy tape just as Middle East nerves keep foreign money cautious. The chip strength lifting Nasdaq is the crosscurrent that could rescue it, but for now the macro drag wins.

A circuit breaker, SK Hynix down some 15%, Samsung down double digits — this was not a wobble, it was Korea's black Monday, and I refuse to dress a 9% hole up as a buying opportunity just because it now looks cheap. I called the Kospi bearish and I stay there, because everything that could end this is still in front of us rather than behind us: US inflation data, and a Fed chair who may yet confirm the hawkish read. Capitulation days like this often bounce hard — but bouncing is not repairing.

My bullish flip on the Kospi lasted exactly one session and it did not work — 7,339 undoes it. I bought the SK Hynix listing story; the tape reminded me that when Samsung and Hynix are roughly half the index, sentiment on the AI chip cycle is the index, and that sentiment is still swinging violently lower on any oversupply whisper. Back to bearish, and I will wait for the lows to stop being made before I try that again.

Fading the quant and turning bullish on the Kospi — the score still reads the wreckage of the Samsung shock, but SK Hynix jumping over 5% with its US listing reportedly seven times oversubscribed and due to debut is the market voting on the chip cycle in real money. When the same two heavyweights that dragged this index down start pulling, the concentration that hurt becomes the leverage that helps.

Staying bearish on the Kospi — the post-Samsung-shock bleed continues, down another 2.9% to 7,427, and when the two chipmakers that made this rally carry roughly half the index's weight, there's simply nowhere to hide while AI-oversupply fears get repriced. I'll stay out of the way until the score stops making new lows.