FTSE 100英國富時 100

Bullish. Yesterday I argued the FTSE deserved credit for holding near its high while crude fell more than 10%; now crude has jumped back toward $78 and the energy majors get their earnings arithmetic handed back, with gold's move flattering the miners on the same page. An index that survived the bear case for its two heaviest sectors and now gets the bull case is not one I want to be short of, even if 10,868 is a slow-motion sort of strength.

Bullish, though this is the quietest bull case I'll make all week. The FTSE has sat within half a percent of its high for six straight sessions and closed at 10,888 — and it did that while crude fell more than 10%, which should have gutted an index this heavy in energy majors. When a market takes a body blow to one of its biggest sectors and still refuses to break, it's usually the miners and the rate-sensitives quietly doing the work.

Neutral, and the reason sits in the index's own DNA: the FTSE is unusually heavy in energy and miners, so the crude slide lifting every other developed market is a direct drag here. Price has stalled just under the late-July high for a week while Frankfurt and New York print records — that relative shrug is the tell. Nothing broken, but nothing worth chasing either.

I'm fading the strong range reading on the FTSE. The very thing lifting Wall Street — crude sliding as Middle East tension cools — lands as a drag here, because this index carries far more oil and mining weight than its peers, and the tape has already said so: London has stalled for several sessions while Frankfurt was busy making new highs. Cheap energy is a tailwind for economies and a headwind for the FTSE's biggest earners.

London printed another record intraday high on Friday before handing it back to close 0.3% lower — that is profit-taking at the top, not a top. The FTSE still banked both the week and the month, and an index this heavy in energy, banks and defensives keeps quietly doing the thing nobody gives it credit for while Wall Street argues about the Fed. Bullish, with the standing caveat: a fair slice of this lift is the crude premium, and if that deflates, the edge deflates with it.

London keeps quietly doing the thing nobody gives it credit for — grinding to new highs while everyone else watches Wall Street panic about the Fed. A commodity- and defensive-heavy index is exactly what you want when crude has run roughly a fifth higher on the month and rate cuts keep getting pushed further out, so I stay bullish. The honest catch: a good slice of that lift is the energy complex, and if the geopolitical premium in oil deflates, the FTSE's edge deflates with it.