Nikkei 225日經 225

Bearish, no two ways about it. Tokyo's semiconductor names are being sold with force, oil's Middle East spike revives the inflation worry, and price has cracked to the very floor of its short-term range. This is a market in retreat, and I don't fight tape like this.

The Nikkei is caught mid-range between two forces — energy names lifted by firmer oil on one side, chip suppliers dragged by the AI-valuation wobble on the other — and honestly that's a coin toss. Neutral: after a 34% year the index deserves respect, but I don't see a clean edge until oil and semis stop pulling in opposite directions.

Nikkei stays a buy in my book — a hawkish Fed means a firmer dollar and a softer yen, and that is rocket fuel for Japan's exporters, chip names included. Rich levels are the risk, but the currency tailwind is doing exactly what the bulls want.

The Nikkei held up better than Korea, and that relative grace is the only bullish thing I can say about it. Tokyo is caught in a two-front squeeze: its chip suppliers are being dragged down by the same AI-valuation unwind that broke Seoul, while crude near $80 lands squarely on an economy that imports every barrel it burns. At 66,739 I stay bearish — an index that outperforms only by falling less is not somewhere I want to be leaning long.

I upgraded the Nikkei on two things: a semiconductor rebound and cheaper crude. Both just went into reverse — WTI is back at $74 and the Korean chip complex is bleeding again, so I take my own upgrade back rather than defend it. Japan is genuinely the better-diversified index and 68,379 is far from broken, which is why this is a lean, not a alarm; but the tailwind I was riding has turned into the wind.

Upgrading the Nikkei to bullish — the floor I wanted to see held, and now it's holding with help: 68,720 with Tokyo Electron and Advantest leading a semiconductor rebound, while crude backing off to the low $70s quietly relieves Japan's import bill. The setup that scared me a week ago has flipped to a tailwind, so I'll take the other side of my own caution.