Hang Seng恒生指數

Still leaning bearish: the Hang Seng nudged up to around 24,100, but it remains pinned in the lower fifth of its range and couldn't hold the 24,200 area it tested earlier this week. Two quiet up-days off the lows look more like short-covering than fresh demand; a decisive reclaim of 24,200 would make us rethink, but we're not there yet.

Leaning bearish: the Hang Seng is stuck near the floor of its 20- and 60-day ranges, and today's small uptick around 24,000 reads more like a pause than a turn. Until buyers can reclaim the 24,200 area with conviction, rallies look like chances for sellers rather than the start of something new.

Hang Seng gave back yesterday's bounce and drifted to around 24,150, sliding deeper into the bottom of its 20- and 60-day ranges — that relief pop already looks spent, so I stay bearish. Washed-out markets can snap back hard on any policy headline, but until it reclaims 24,500 the path of least resistance still points lower.

Hang Seng bounced back above 24,200, but that looks more like a relief pop off washed-out levels than a change of heart — it still sits in the lower part of its 20- and 60-day ranges, so I stay bearish. A clean push through 24,500 would make me rethink; until then, rallies look like chances for the money to keep leaving.

Hang Seng slipped back under 24,000 and sits near the floor of its ranges while Tokyo and Taipei sprint to records — that divergence says the money is going elsewhere, so I stay bearish. Being this washed out, it is vulnerable to a sudden short-covering pop, but I'd want to see 24,500 reclaimed before believing it.

Hang Seng is scraping along the bottom of its 5-, 20- and 60-day ranges just under 24,000, and every bounce keeps getting sold. It's oversold enough that a sharp relief pop is possible, but until buyers can reclaim lost ground, the drift still points lower.